Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

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Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorSpanish National Research Council-
Autor(es): dc.contributorMember of the Leibniz Association-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUtrecht University-
Autor(es): dc.contributorMet Office Hadley Centre-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversity of Exeter-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversity of Birmingham-
Autor(es): dc.contributorNational Institute for Space Research-
Autor(es): dc.contributorTechnical University of Munich-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversity of California-
Autor(es): dc.contributorNaturalis Biodiversity Center-
Autor(es): dc.contributorScience Panel for the Amazon (SPA)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorSustainable Development Solutions Network-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversity of Oxford-
Autor(es): dc.contributorCentro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorKorea University-
Autor(es): dc.contributorPrinceton University-
Autor(es): dc.creatorFlores, Bernardo M.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorMontoya, Encarni-
Autor(es): dc.creatorSakschewski, Boris-
Autor(es): dc.creatorNascimento, Nathália-
Autor(es): dc.creatorStaal, Arie-
Autor(es): dc.creatorBetts, Richard A.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorLevis, Carolina-
Autor(es): dc.creatorLapola, David M.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorEsquível-Muelbert, Adriane-
Autor(es): dc.creatorJakovac, Catarina-
Autor(es): dc.creatorNobre, Carlos A.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorOliveira, Rafael S.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorBorma, Laura S.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorNian, Da-
Autor(es): dc.creatorBoers, Niklas-
Autor(es): dc.creatorHecht, Susanna B.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorter Steege, Hans-
Autor(es): dc.creatorArieira, Julia-
Autor(es): dc.creatorLucas, Isabella L.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorBerenguer, Erika-
Autor(es): dc.creatorMarengo, José A.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorGatti, Luciana V.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorMattos, Caio R. C.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorHirota, Marina-
Data de aceite: dc.date.accessioned2025-08-21T18:24:43Z-
Data de disponibilização: dc.date.available2025-08-21T18:24:43Z-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2025-04-29-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2024-02-14-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/11449/308792-
Fonte: dc.identifier.urihttp://educapes.capes.gov.br/handle/11449/308792-
Descrição: dc.descriptionThe possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1–3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.-
Descrição: dc.descriptionGraduate Program in Ecology Federal University of Santa Catarina-
Descrição: dc.descriptionGeosciences Barcelona Spanish National Research Council-
Descrição: dc.descriptionPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Member of the Leibniz Association-
Descrição: dc.descriptionInstitute of Advanced Studies University of São Paulo-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development Utrecht University-
Descrição: dc.descriptionMet Office Hadley Centre-
Descrição: dc.descriptionGlobal Systems Institute University of Exeter-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCenter for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture University of Campinas-
Descrição: dc.descriptionSchool of Geography Earth and Environmental Sciences University of Birmingham-
Descrição: dc.descriptionBirmingham Institute of Forest Research University of Birmingham-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartment of Plant Sciences Federal University of Santa Catarina-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartment of Plant Biology University of Campinas-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDivision of Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerabilities (DIIAV) National Institute for Space Research-
Descrição: dc.descriptionEarth System Modelling School of Engineering and Design Technical University of Munich-
Descrição: dc.descriptionLuskin School for Public Affairs and Institute of the Environment University of California-
Descrição: dc.descriptionNaturalis Biodiversity Center-
Descrição: dc.descriptionQuantitative Biodiversity Dynamics Utrecht University-
Descrição: dc.descriptionScience Panel for the Amazon (SPA)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionSustainable Development Solutions Network-
Descrição: dc.descriptionEnvironmental Change Institute University of Oxford-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCentro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais-
Descrição: dc.descriptionGraduate Program in Natural Disasters UNESP/CEMADEN-
Descrição: dc.descriptionGraduate School of International Studies Korea University-
Descrição: dc.descriptionProgram in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Princeton University-
Descrição: dc.descriptionGroup IpES Department of Physics Federal University of Santa Catarina-
Descrição: dc.descriptionGraduate Program in Natural Disasters UNESP/CEMADEN-
Formato: dc.format555-564-
Idioma: dc.languageen-
Relação: dc.relationNature-
???dc.source???: dc.sourceScopus-
Título: dc.titleCritical transitions in the Amazon forest system-
Tipo de arquivo: dc.typelivro digital-
Aparece nas coleções:Repositório Institucional - Unesp

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