Short-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird

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Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorMater Natura – Instituto de Estudos Ambientais-
Autor(es): dc.contributorAquaculture and Fisheries Group-
Autor(es): dc.contributorWageningen University & amp; Research-
Autor(es): dc.creatorSandretti-Silva, Giovanna-
Autor(es): dc.creatorVannucchi, Fabio Stucchi-
Autor(es): dc.creatorTeixeira, Larissa-
Autor(es): dc.creatorTan, Tjui Yeuw-
Autor(es): dc.creatorMori, Gustavo Maruyama-
Autor(es): dc.creatorReinert, Bianca Luiza-
Autor(es): dc.creatorBornschein, Marcos R.-
Data de aceite: dc.date.accessioned2025-08-21T21:44:27Z-
Data de disponibilização: dc.date.available2025-08-21T21:44:27Z-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2025-04-29-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2024-06-01-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-12618-x-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/11449/308220-
Fonte: dc.identifier.urihttp://educapes.capes.gov.br/handle/11449/308220-
Descrição: dc.descriptionSalt marshes pose challenges for the birds that inhabit them, including high rates of nest flooding, tipping, and predation. The impacts of rising sea levels and invasive species further exacerbate these challenges. To assess the urgency of conservation and adequacy of new actions, researchers and wildlife managers may use population viability analyses (PVAs) to identify population trends and major threats. We conducted PVA for Formicivora acutirostris, which is a threatened neotropical bird species endemic to salt marshes. We studied the species’ demography in different sectors of an estuary in southern Brazil from 2006 to 2023 and estimated the sex ratio, longevity, productivity, first-year survival, and mortality rates. For a 133-year period, starting in 1990, we modeled four scenarios: (1) pessimistic and (2) optimistic scenarios, including the worst and best values for the parameters; (3) a baseline scenario, with intermediate values; and (4) scenarios under conservation management, with increased recruitment and/or habitat preservation. Projections indicated population decline for all assessment scenarios, with a 100% probability of extinction by 2054 in the pessimistic scenario and no extinction in the optimistic scenario. The conservation scenarios indicated population stability with 16% improvement in productivity, 10% improvement in first-year survival, and stable carrying capacity. The disjunct distribution of the species, with remnants concentrated in a broad interface with arboreal habitats, may seal the population decline by increasing nest predation. The species should be considered conservation dependent, and we recommend assisted colonization, predator control, habitat recovery, and ex situ conservation.-
Descrição: dc.descriptionFundação Grupo Boticário de Proteção à Natureza-
Descrição: dc.descriptionFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartamento de Ciências Biológicas e Ambientais Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) Instituto de Biociências, Praça Infante Dom Henrique, S/No-
Descrição: dc.descriptionMater Natura – Instituto de Estudos Ambientais, Rua Emiliano Perneta, 297, Conjunto 122-
Descrição: dc.descriptionWageningen University & amp; Research Aquaculture and Fisheries Group, Korringaweg, 7-
Descrição: dc.descriptionAquaculture and Fisheries Group Wageningen University & amp; Research, De Elst, 1-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartamento de Ciências Biológicas e Ambientais Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) Instituto de Biociências, Praça Infante Dom Henrique, S/No-
Descrição: dc.descriptionFundação Grupo Boticário de Proteção à Natureza: 0682/20052-
Descrição: dc.descriptionFAPESP: 2022/04847-7-
Idioma: dc.languageen-
Relação: dc.relationEnvironmental Monitoring and Assessment-
???dc.source???: dc.sourceScopus-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectAssisted colonization-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectConservation status-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectFirst-year survival-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectFormicivora acutirostris-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectPredator control-
Título: dc.titleShort-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird-
Tipo de arquivo: dc.typelivro digital-
Aparece nas coleções:Repositório Institucional - Unesp

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