Barley vulnerability to climate change: perspectives for cultivation in South America

Registro completo de metadados
MetadadosDescriçãoIdioma
Autor(es): dc.contributorFederal Institute of Sul de Minas Gerais (IFSULDEMINAS) – Campus Muzambinho-
Autor(es): dc.contributorIFMS-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)-
Autor(es): dc.creatorde Oliveira Aparecido, Lucas Eduardo-
Autor(es): dc.creatorTorsoni, Guilherme Botega-
Autor(es): dc.creatorLorençone, Pedro Antonio-
Autor(es): dc.creatorLorençone, João Antonio-
Autor(es): dc.creatorde Souza Rolim, Glauco-
Data de aceite: dc.date.accessioned2025-08-21T20:56:47Z-
Data de disponibilização: dc.date.available2025-08-21T20:56:47Z-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2025-04-29-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2024-12-31-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00484-024-02798-z-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/11449/304288-
Fonte: dc.identifier.urihttp://educapes.capes.gov.br/handle/11449/304288-
Descrição: dc.descriptionBarley (Hordeum vulgare) is a globally significant cereal crop, widely used in both food production and brewing. However, it is particularly vulnerable to climate change, especially extreme temperature fluctuations, which can severely reduce yields. To address this challenge, a detailed climate zoning study was conducted to assess the suitability of barley production areas across South America, considering both current conditions and future climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study utilized historical climate data along with projections from the CMIP6 IPSL-CM6A-LR model for the period 2021–2100. Several indices, such as evapotranspiration, were calculated, and factors like soil composition and topography were integrated into the classification of regions based on their agricultural potential. Critical variables in this assessment included temperature, precipitation, and water or thermal excess. The results showed that 6.59% of South America's territory is currently suitable for barley cultivation without additional irrigation, with these regions concentrated primarily in temperate southern areas. In contrast, 18.62% of the region is already unsuitable due to excessive heat. Projections under future climate scenarios indicate a shrinking of suitable areas, alongside an expansion of unsuitable regions. In the worst-case scenario, only 1.48% of the territory would remain viable for barley farming. These findings emphasize the crop's vulnerability to climate change, underscoring the urgency of developing agricultural adaptation strategies. The predicted contraction in suitable barley cultivation areas demonstrates the profound impact of climate change on agriculture and highlights the need for proactive measures to ensure sustainable barley production in South America.-
Descrição: dc.descriptionFederal Institute of Sul de Minas Gerais (IFSULDEMINAS) – Campus Muzambinho-
Descrição: dc.descriptionFederal Institute of Mato Grosso Do Sul - Campus of Naviraí IFMS-
Descrição: dc.descriptionFaculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias - Câmpus de Jaboticabal UNESP-
Descrição: dc.descriptionFaculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias - Câmpus de Jaboticabal UNESP-
Formato: dc.format123-136-
Idioma: dc.languageen-
Relação: dc.relationInternational Journal of Biometeorology-
???dc.source???: dc.sourceScopus-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectAgricultural suitability-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectClimate projections-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectClimate zoning-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectCrop suitability analysis-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectHordeum vulgare-
Título: dc.titleBarley vulnerability to climate change: perspectives for cultivation in South America-
Tipo de arquivo: dc.typelivro digital-
Aparece nas coleções:Repositório Institucional - Unesp

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