Climate projections of precipitation and temperature in the Metropolitan Region of Vale do Paraíba-SP simulated by climate models from CMIP6

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Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade Federal do ABC (UFABC)-
Autor(es): dc.creatorBosco, Ricardo Brambila-
Autor(es): dc.creatorValverde, María Cleofé-
Data de aceite: dc.date.accessioned2025-08-21T21:57:13Z-
Data de disponibilização: dc.date.available2025-08-21T21:57:13Z-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2023-03-01-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2023-03-01-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2021-12-31-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v15.3.p1621-1638-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/240299-
Fonte: dc.identifier.urihttp://educapes.capes.gov.br/handle/11449/240299-
Descrição: dc.descriptionThis work aimed to investigate the temperature and precipitation changes simulated by CMIP6 high-resolution climate models (CNRM-CM6-1-HR, EC-EARTH3 and MPI-ESM1-HR) for two emission scenarios (SSP2 4.5, SSP5 8.5) in the Metropolitan Region of Vale do Paraíba in the State of São Paulo. The region was divided into four sub-regions: Sub-region 1 – São José dos Campos, Sub-region 2 – Taubaté, Sub-region 3 – Guaratinguetá and Sub-region 4 – Cruzeiro. Based on the observed data (1961-2014), Sub-region 1 was the hottest and least rainy concerning the other sub-regions. According to the Man-Kendall test, the interannual variability of precipitation and temperature showed, for the four sub-regions, significant trends of decrease and increased, respectively. For future projections, there was consensus in the climate models used, for significant trends in temperature increase, considering the period 2015-2100, similar to that observed. Sub-region 3 – Guaratinguetá should present the most significant warming of 4.8°C, concerning the simulated climatology, for the most extreme scenario SSP5 8.5. About precipitation, was no consensus by the models, and only the MPI-ESM1-HR model showed a significant tendency to increase in the period 2041-2070, in Sub-regions 1 and 4 and for the SSP2 4.5 scenario. As for the SSP5 8.5 scenario, the significant increasing trends were only for 2071-2100 and sub-regions 1, 3, and 4. It is noteworthy that the simulation of precipitation is still a considerable challenge uncertainty is high, and validation of climate models is always recommended.-
Descrição: dc.descriptionInstituto de Ciência e Tecnologia Universidade Estadual de São Paulo Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (UNESP/CEMADEN)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCentro de Engenharia Modelagem e Ciências Sociais Aplicadas Universidade Federal do ABC (UFABC)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionInstituto de Ciência e Tecnologia Universidade Estadual de São Paulo Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (UNESP/CEMADEN)-
Formato: dc.format1621-1638-
Idioma: dc.languagept_BR-
Relação: dc.relationRevista Brasileira de Geografia Fisica-
???dc.source???: dc.sourceScopus-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectClimate change-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectCMIP6-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectExtremes-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectMetropolitan Region of Vale do Paraíba-
Título: dc.titleClimate projections of precipitation and temperature in the Metropolitan Region of Vale do Paraíba-SP simulated by climate models from CMIP6-
Título: dc.titleProjeções climáticas de precipitação e temperatura na Região Metropolitana do Vale do Paraíba – SP simulados por modelos climáticos do CMIP6-
Tipo de arquivo: dc.typelivro digital-
Aparece nas coleções:Repositório Institucional - Unesp

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