Future climate trends of subtropical cyclones in the South Atlantic basin in an ensemble of global and regional projections

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Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade Federal de Itajubá-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)-
Autor(es): dc.creatorde Jesus, Eduardo Marcos-
Autor(es): dc.creatorda Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio-
Autor(es): dc.creatorCrespo, Natália Machado-
Autor(es): dc.creatorReboita, Michelle Simões-
Autor(es): dc.creatorGozzo, Luiz Felippe-
Data de aceite: dc.date.accessioned2025-08-21T20:21:48Z-
Data de disponibilização: dc.date.available2025-08-21T20:21:48Z-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2022-04-29-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2022-04-29-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2022-01-31-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05958-8-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/229533-
Fonte: dc.identifier.urihttp://educapes.capes.gov.br/handle/11449/229533-
Descrição: dc.descriptionThe South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) is characterized by the development of different types of synoptic scale cyclones, which affect the weather and climate of South America. For the first time, we obtained the long term trend of subtropical cyclones (SCs) climatology over the SAO through two ensembles under RCP8.5 scenario. Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) projections were driven by three global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5. SCs are obtained by applying three algorithms: (1) for tracking all cyclones based on relative vorticity; (2) to describe the thermal structure of the cyclones; and (3) for selecting only the SCs. Ensemble means are able to capture the main SCs characteristics shown by ERA-Interim reanalysis in the present climate (1979–2005), such as the main region of formation (near the southeastern Brazilian coast), track density, seasonality (higher frequency in austral summer) and lifetime (~ 3 days). The RegCM4 and GCMs ensembles project a negative and statistically significant trend in the frequency of SCs in the future climate (2050–2080) near the southeastern coast of Brazil. The projections also indicate a greater negative trend of SCs than for all cyclones. This would be a response to the future increase in the mean sea level pressure (expansion of South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone), which in turn leads to a change in the low-level circulation acting to decrease the moisture transport to the main region of SCs development. Though the SCs frequency will decrease in the future, they are projected to be more intense due to stronger convective forcing.-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCoordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionPetrobras-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Instituto de Astronomia Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de São Paulo, SP-
Descrição: dc.descriptionInstituto de Recursos Naturais Universidade Federal de Itajubá, MG-
Descrição: dc.descriptionBauru Meteorological Centre (IPMET) Faculdade de Ciências Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), SP-
Descrição: dc.descriptionBauru Meteorological Centre (IPMET) Faculdade de Ciências Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), SP-
Formato: dc.format1221-1236-
Idioma: dc.languageen-
Relação: dc.relationClimate Dynamics-
???dc.source???: dc.sourceScopus-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectClimate projections-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectCORDEX-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectGCMs-CMIP5-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectRegCM4-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectSouth Atlantic basin-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectSubtropical cyclones-
Título: dc.titleFuture climate trends of subtropical cyclones in the South Atlantic basin in an ensemble of global and regional projections-
Tipo de arquivo: dc.typelivro digital-
Aparece nas coleções:Repositório Institucional - Unesp

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