Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study

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Autor(es): dc.contributorJoint Research Centre (JRC)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorCentro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC Foundation—REMHI Division)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversity of Colorado-
Autor(es): dc.contributorCentro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorNiels Bohr Institute (NBI)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorDanish Meteorological Institute-
Autor(es): dc.contributorAbdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversity of New South Wales-
Autor(es): dc.contributorInstitute of Coastal Research-
Autor(es): dc.contributorClimate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorHelmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht-
Autor(es): dc.contributorCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Marine and Atmospheric Research-
Autor(es): dc.contributorRossby Centre-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversité du Quebec à Montréal (UQAM)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorClimate System Analysis Group (CSAG)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorBogazici University-
Autor(es): dc.contributorChinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorIsik University-
Autor(es): dc.contributorKarlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidad de Buenos Aires-
Autor(es): dc.contributorCentro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorThe University of Queensland-
Autor(es): dc.contributorThe National University of Malaysia (UKM)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorNorwegian Research Centre AS-
Autor(es): dc.contributorCentro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali (CIRA)-
Autor(es): dc.creatorSpinoni, Jonathan-
Autor(es): dc.creatorBarbosa, Paulo-
Autor(es): dc.creatorBucchignani, Edoardo-
Autor(es): dc.creatorCassano, John-
Autor(es): dc.creatorCavazos, Tereza-
Autor(es): dc.creatorCescatti, Alessandro-
Autor(es): dc.creatorChristensen, Jens Hesselbjerg-
Autor(es): dc.creatorChristensen, Ole Bøssing-
Autor(es): dc.creatorCoppola, Erika-
Autor(es): dc.creatorEvans, Jason-
Autor(es): dc.creatorForzieri, Giovanni-
Autor(es): dc.creatorGeyer, Beate-
Autor(es): dc.creatorGiorgi, Filippo-
Autor(es): dc.creatorJacob, Daniela-
Autor(es): dc.creatorKatzfey, Jack-
Autor(es): dc.creatorKoenigk, Torben-
Autor(es): dc.creatorLaprise, René-
Autor(es): dc.creatorLennard, Christopher John-
Autor(es): dc.creatorLevent Kurnaz, M.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorLi, Delei-
Autor(es): dc.creatorLlopart, Marta-
Autor(es): dc.creatorMcCormick, Niall-
Autor(es): dc.creatorNaumann, Gustavo-
Autor(es): dc.creatorNikulin, Grigory-
Autor(es): dc.creatorOzturk, Tugba-
Autor(es): dc.creatorPanitz, Hans-Jürgen-
Autor(es): dc.creatorda Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio-
Autor(es): dc.creatorSolman, Silvina Alicia-
Autor(es): dc.creatorSyktus, Jozef-
Autor(es): dc.creatorTangang, Fredolin-
Autor(es): dc.creatorTeichmann, Claas-
Autor(es): dc.creatorVautard, Robert-
Autor(es): dc.creatorVogt, Jürgen Valentin-
Autor(es): dc.creatorWinger, Katja-
Autor(es): dc.creatorZittis, George-
Autor(es): dc.creatorDosio, Alessandro-
Data de aceite: dc.date.accessioned2025-08-21T21:24:01Z-
Data de disponibilização: dc.date.available2025-08-21T21:24:01Z-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2022-04-29-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2022-04-29-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2020-12-31-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7302-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/229258-
Fonte: dc.identifier.urihttp://educapes.capes.gov.br/handle/11449/229258-
Descrição: dc.descriptionGlobal warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population and land-use (forests, croplands, pastures) exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset, and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981–2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five SSPs (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs, from 1.5 to 4°C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the combination SSP3-GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (vs. 1981–2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, and SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 (fossil-fuelled development) at GWL 4°C, approximately 2·106 km2 of forests and croplands (respectively, 6 and 11%) and 1.5·106 km2 of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI, this extent will rise to 17·106 km2 of forests (49%), 6·106 km2 of pastures (78%), and 12·106 km2 of croplands (67%), with mid-latitudes being the most affected areas. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.-
Descrição: dc.descriptionEuropean Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCentro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC Foundation—REMHI Division)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Snow and Ice Data Center University of Colorado-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCentro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionUniversity of Copenhagen Niels Bohr Institute (NBI)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDanish Meteorological Institute-
Descrição: dc.descriptionAbdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionFaculty of Science University of New South Wales-
Descrição: dc.descriptionHelmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG) Institute of Coastal Research-
Descrição: dc.descriptionThe Cyprus Institute (CyI) Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionClimate Service Center Germany (GERICS) Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Marine and Atmospheric Research-
Descrição: dc.descriptionSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) Rossby Centre-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDépartement des Sciences de la Terre et de l'Atmosphère Université du Quebec à Montréal (UQAM)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionUniversity of Cape Town Climate System Analysis Group (CSAG)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartment of Physics Faculty of Arts and Sciences Bogazici University-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCenter for Climate Change and Policy Studies Bogazici University-
Descrição: dc.descriptionKey Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionSão Paulo State University and Bauru Meteorological Centre (IPMet/UNESP)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartment of Physics Faculty of Arts and Sciences Isik University-
Descrição: dc.descriptionInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de São Paulo-
Descrição: dc.descriptionFacultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (DCAO-FCEN-UBA) Universidad de Buenos Aires-
Descrição: dc.descriptionUniversidad de Buenos Aires Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionSchool of Biological Sciences The University of Queensland-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartment of Earth Sciences and Environment The National University of Malaysia (UKM)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionNational Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionNORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCentro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali (CIRA)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionSão Paulo State University and Bauru Meteorological Centre (IPMet/UNESP)-
Idioma: dc.languageen-
Relação: dc.relationInternational Journal of Climatology-
???dc.source???: dc.sourceScopus-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectclimate projections-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectCORDEX-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectdrought-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectglobal warming levels-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectland-use-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectpopulation-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectsocioeconomic scenarios-
Título: dc.titleGlobal exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study-
Tipo de arquivo: dc.typelivro digital-
Aparece nas coleções:Repositório Institucional - Unesp

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