Climate Change Impacts on the South American Monsoon System and Its Surface–Atmosphere Processes Through RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE Projections

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Autor(es): dc.contributorUNIFEI-
Autor(es): dc.contributorThe Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorOak Ridge National Laboratory-
Autor(es): dc.creatorTeodoro, Thales Alves-
Autor(es): dc.creatorReboita, Michelle Simões-
Autor(es): dc.creatorLlopart, Marta-
Autor(es): dc.creatorda Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio-
Autor(es): dc.creatorAshfaq, Moetasim-
Data de aceite: dc.date.accessioned2025-08-21T20:40:58Z-
Data de disponibilização: dc.date.available2025-08-21T20:40:58Z-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2022-04-28-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2022-04-28-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2020-12-31-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00265-y-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/222738-
Fonte: dc.identifier.urihttp://educapes.capes.gov.br/handle/11449/222738-
Descrição: dc.descriptionThis study evaluates projected changes in surface water and energy balances and surface–atmosphere coupling in the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) for the end of the century (2080–2099). The analyses are based on two ensemble datasets, which follow Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 in the future period, and cover four subdomains (Northern and Southern—NAMZ and SAMZ—Amazon, La Plata Basin—LPB, and Southern Southeast Brazil—SSB). One ensemble consists of three Global Climate Models (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and NorESM1-M), while the other consists of their dynamically downscaled version at 25 km horizontal grid spacing using Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). As both ensembles are able in reproducing the annual cycle of the components of the surface water and energy balances in the present climate, they can be used in the study of future climate. During the wet season (November–March), both ensembles project a decrease in precipitation over NAMZ and SAMZ (an exception is RegCM4 that projects a slight increase in SAMZ), and an increase across the LPB and SSB. These changes do not cause retreat or expansion of the monsoon area over the continent, which is similar to the present climate (1995–2014). For the wet season, the ensembles are in line with the presence of a strong surface–atmosphere coupling in LPB and SSB, weak coupling in SAMZ and very weak coupling in NAMZ. For future climate, the coupling is even weaker in NAMZ, which may be a driver for the negative changes in precipitation. For the other subdomains, while the ensembles project similar signals of precipitation changes, they disagree with the surface-atmosphere coupling highlighting the uncertainties in future climate.-
Descrição: dc.descriptionFederal University of Itajubá UNIFEI-
Descrição: dc.descriptionThe Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionUniversidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de São Paulo USP-
Descrição: dc.descriptionComputational Sciences and Engineering Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory-
Descrição: dc.descriptionUniversidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP)-
Idioma: dc.languageen-
Relação: dc.relationEarth Systems and Environment-
???dc.source???: dc.sourceScopus-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectClimate change-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectCoupling indices-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectMonsoon area-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectSAMS-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectSurface energy balance-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectSurface water balance-
Título: dc.titleClimate Change Impacts on the South American Monsoon System and Its Surface–Atmosphere Processes Through RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE Projections-
Tipo de arquivo: dc.typelivro digital-
Aparece nas coleções:Repositório Institucional - Unesp

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