Future changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approach

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MetadadosDescriçãoIdioma
Autor(es): dc.contributorUNIFEI-
Autor(es): dc.contributorThe Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physiscs-
Autor(es): dc.contributorIstituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale OGS-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorCICESE-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorIPMet-
Autor(es): dc.creatorReboita, Michelle Simões-
Autor(es): dc.creatorReale, Marco-
Autor(es): dc.creatorda Rocha, Rosmeri P.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorGiorgi, Filippo-
Autor(es): dc.creatorGiuliani, Graziano-
Autor(es): dc.creatorCoppola, Erika-
Autor(es): dc.creatorNino, Rosa Beatriz Luna-
Autor(es): dc.creatorLlopart, Marta [UNESP]-
Autor(es): dc.creatorTorres, Jose Abraham-
Autor(es): dc.creatorCavazos, Tereza-
Data de aceite: dc.date.accessioned2022-02-22T00:32:40Z-
Data de disponibilização: dc.date.available2022-02-22T00:32:40Z-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2020-12-11-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2020-12-11-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2019-12-31-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05317-z-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/201133-
Fonte: dc.identifier.urihttp://educapes.capes.gov.br/handle/11449/201133-
Descrição: dc.descriptionChanges in the characteristics of austral winter (June–July–August) synoptic activity in three domains (Africa, Australia and South America) of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere projected with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) are presented. The model is nested in three global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The model grid spacing is 25 km and the simulations cover the period 1970–2100. Synoptic activity is analyzed using both Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches. The Eulerian analysis shows an increase of the synoptic activity south of 40° S in the RegCM4 and GCMs ensembles for the future (2080–2099) compared to the present (1995–2014), but this signal does not necessarily indicate an increase in the cyclone frequency since it includes cyclonic and anticyclonic features. The Lagrangian analysis, however, indicates a decrease in the frequency of cyclones, with a positive tendency towards stronger systems, although the latter is not statistically significant at 95% confidence level. Lifetime, traveled distance and mean speed of the cyclones do not present statistically significant changes in the future climate. On the other hand, a significant increase in both intensity and extension of areas affected by precipitation associated with cyclones is found. As a consequence, there is a statistically significant trend of individual cyclones to produce more rainfall in the future.-
Descrição: dc.descriptionFederal University of Itajubá UNIFEI-
Descrição: dc.descriptionEarth System Physics ESP The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physiscs-
Descrição: dc.descriptionIstituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale OGS-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de São Paulo USP-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartment of Physical Oceanography Ensenada Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education CICESE-
Descrição: dc.descriptionUniversidade Estadual Paulista UNESP-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCentro de Meteorologia de Bauru IPMet-
Descrição: dc.descriptionUniversidade Estadual Paulista UNESP-
Idioma: dc.languageen-
Relação: dc.relationClimate Dynamics-
???dc.source???: dc.sourceScopus-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectCORDEX-CORE-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectCyclone tracking scheme-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectCyclones-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectExtratropical southern hemisphere-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectPrecipitation-
Palavras-chave: dc.subjectRegCM4-
Título: dc.titleFuture changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approach-
Tipo de arquivo: dc.typelivro digital-
Aparece nas coleções:Repositório Institucional - Unesp

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