Future global meteorological drought hot spots: A study based on CORDEX data

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MetadadosDescriçãoIdioma
Autor(es): dc.contributorJoint Research Centre-
Autor(es): dc.contributorCentro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversity of Colorado Boulder-
Autor(es): dc.contributorCentro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Superior de Ensenada-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversity of Copenhagen-
Autor(es): dc.contributorDanish Meteorological Institute-
Autor(es): dc.contributorAbdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversity of New South Wales-
Autor(es): dc.contributorInstitute of Coastal Research-
Autor(es): dc.contributorCyprus Institute-
Autor(es): dc.contributorClimate Service Center Germany-
Autor(es): dc.contributorCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Marine and Atmospheric Research-
Autor(es): dc.contributorSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversity du Quebec à Montreal-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversity of Cape Town-
Autor(es): dc.contributorBogazici University-
Autor(es): dc.contributorInstitute of Oceanology-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorIsik University-
Autor(es): dc.contributorKarlsruhe Institute of Technology-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversidad de Buenos Aires-
Autor(es): dc.contributorUniversity of Queensland-
Autor(es): dc.contributorNational University of Malaysia (UKM)-
Autor(es): dc.contributorLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environment-
Autor(es): dc.contributorNorwegian Research Centre AS (NORCE)-
Autor(es): dc.creatorSpinoni, Jonathan-
Autor(es): dc.creatorBarbosa, Paulo-
Autor(es): dc.creatorBucchignani, Edoardo-
Autor(es): dc.creatorCassano, John-
Autor(es): dc.creatorCavazos, Tereza-
Autor(es): dc.creatorChristensen, Jens H.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorChristensen, Ole B.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorCoppola, Erika-
Autor(es): dc.creatorEvans, Jason-
Autor(es): dc.creatorGeyer, Beate-
Autor(es): dc.creatorGiorgi, Filippo-
Autor(es): dc.creatorHadjinicolaou, Panos-
Autor(es): dc.creatorJacob, Daniela-
Autor(es): dc.creatorKatzfey, Jack-
Autor(es): dc.creatorKoenigk, Torben-
Autor(es): dc.creatorLaprise, René-
Autor(es): dc.creatorLennard, Christopher J.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorKurnaz, M. Levent-
Autor(es): dc.creatorDelei, L. I.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorLlopart, Marta [UNESP]-
Autor(es): dc.creatorMcCormick, Niall-
Autor(es): dc.creatorNaumann, Gustavo-
Autor(es): dc.creatorNikulin, Grigory-
Autor(es): dc.creatorOzturk, Tugba-
Autor(es): dc.creatorPanitz, Hans-Juergen-
Autor(es): dc.creatorda Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio-
Autor(es): dc.creatorRockel, Burkhardt-
Autor(es): dc.creatorSolman, Silvina A.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorSyktus, Jozef-
Autor(es): dc.creatorTangang, Fredolin-
Autor(es): dc.creatorTeichmann, Claas-
Autor(es): dc.creatorVautard, Robert-
Autor(es): dc.creatorVogt, Jürgen V.-
Autor(es): dc.creatorWinger, Katja-
Autor(es): dc.creatorZittis, George-
Autor(es): dc.creatorDosio, Alessandro-
Data de aceite: dc.date.accessioned2022-02-22T00:31:43Z-
Data de disponibilização: dc.date.available2022-02-22T00:31:43Z-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2020-12-11-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2020-12-11-
Data de envio: dc.date.issued2020-05-01-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1-
Fonte completa do material: dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/200788-
Fonte: dc.identifier.urihttp://educapes.capes.gov.br/handle/11449/200788-
Descrição: dc.descriptionTwo questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.448) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only,;15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (;47% under RCP4.5,;49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.-
Descrição: dc.descriptionEuropean Commission Joint Research Centre-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCentro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Colorado Boulder-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCentro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Superior de Ensenada-
Descrição: dc.descriptionNiels Bohr Institute University of Copenhagen-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDanish Meteorological Institute-
Descrição: dc.descriptionAbdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics-
Descrição: dc.descriptionFaculty of Science University of New South Wales-
Descrição: dc.descriptionHelmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Institute of Coastal Research-
Descrição: dc.descriptionEnergy Environment and Water Research Center Cyprus Institute-
Descrição: dc.descriptionClimate Service Center Germany-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Marine and Atmospheric Research-
Descrição: dc.descriptionRossby Centre Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDépartement des Sciences de la Terre et de l’Atmosphère University du Quebec à Montreal-
Descrição: dc.descriptionClimate System Analysis Group University of Cape Town-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartment of Physics Faculty of Arts and Sciences Bogazici University-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCenter for Climate Change and Policy Studies Bogazici University-
Descrição: dc.descriptionChinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Oceanology-
Descrição: dc.descriptionSao Paulo State University Bauru Meteorological Centre (IPMet/UNESP)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartment of Physics Faculty of Arts and Sciences Isik University-
Descrição: dc.descriptionInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research Karlsruhe Institute of Technology-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartimento de Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de Sao Paulo-
Descrição: dc.descriptionFacultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos Universidad de Buenos Aires-
Descrição: dc.descriptionCentro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera Universidad de Buenos Aires-
Descrição: dc.descriptionGlobal Change Institute University of Queensland-
Descrição: dc.descriptionDepartment of Earth Sciences and Environment National University of Malaysia (UKM)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionNational Centre for Scientific Research Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environment-
Descrição: dc.descriptionNorwegian Research Centre AS (NORCE)-
Descrição: dc.descriptionSao Paulo State University Bauru Meteorological Centre (IPMet/UNESP)-
Formato: dc.format3635-3661-
Idioma: dc.languageen-
Relação: dc.relationJournal of Climate-
???dc.source???: dc.sourceScopus-
Título: dc.titleFuture global meteorological drought hot spots: A study based on CORDEX data-
Tipo de arquivo: dc.typelivro digital-
Aparece nas coleções:Repositório Institucional - Unesp

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